博弈虽有趣却也危险，重要的是你得先了解它，而真正了解它是需要理论的思维的，最简单的思维就是算出你输得起多少。赢家当然是有，但长期的赢家是凤毛鳞角的，并且只有在玩家能有优势的赌戏中才有可能，而强的扑克玩家与弱的扑克玩家对赌时就是个例子。

输去的赌资绝不能来自正常的储蓄、借贷或不法所得，因为那正是通往博弈破产之路。赌本只应来自收入，但当然不是那用来维持日常生计的收入，而是可支配的收入，可任意用于休闲的支出。低收入的穷人有可能因收入较别人低，其可支配的收入较低，因而应该将较少收入分派于可输去的赌资。譬如，若只有十分之一的可支配收入，则可输的赌资最多只能是该可支配收入的十分之一，也就是总收入的百分之一。

较富裕的人也许有二十分之一的可支配收入，而将该收入的二十分之一分派于可输的赌资，使其占总收入的百分之四。百分之一至百分之四的平均值是百分之二点五，它是个适于作为调整可输的赌资占总收入百分比的基准。

若某人一周工作４０小时，则一小时即占其工时之百分之二点五，那么当你每小时输去的赌资高于你每小时的工资就没道理了。所以，一小时工资为１０英镑，一周工作４０小时，而能赚４００英镑的人，每周博弈一小时是输得起１０英镑的。

无论你的博弈是按周、月还是年计算，那是无关紧要的。原则是要把最多的时间及最高的损失应用于最长的期间。在一个有２８天的月份，可输的赌资就是玩四小时输４０英镑。若是一年一度的赌游，则可输的赌资就是玩５０小时输５００英镑。

从赌桌游戏来看，游戏的速度及每一个游戏的赌场优势是迥异的。如果你玩的游戏每小时可发一百手，其赌场优势是百分之一，而你每一注的金额相同，那么你每小时的损失就等于你押一注的金额，所以你的下注额应当是１０英镑，以达到每小时平均输１０英镑。虽然预期的损失是１０英镑，但一小时下来的输赢可达1000英镑，故你必备的赌本很可能是介于10与1000英镑之间。有一种将损失按赌资百分比做衡量的常用方法称作”赌桌赢率”(请参考本网站“一般赌场词汇”一文中对赌桌赢率的解释)。由于一般赌桌赢率约20%，则必备之最少赌资可能是50英镑。但这赌资只是一个平均值，故备妥远大于一趟赌博中所需此平均值之赌本是有道理的，并且这赌本须能熬过连续几趟的损失，我们建议开始就准备500英镑的赌本。要建立赌本，就要在开赌前每周自可支配收入中拨出10英镑存着，若你办不到，就还不够格开赌。

所下赌注的种类也有差别。投注于轮盘中赔率为1比1的红黑注，就不致于像投注于赔率为35比1的单数字注波动那样大。这500英镑的赌本，用来对付赔率为1比1的赌注是游刃有余，但对付赔率为35比1的赌注可能就不足了。

为了在一年后仍然能够继续博弈，你得持续每周拨存10英镑。赢利不能花用于其他的项目，而必须添加于赌本，这是保证赌本完整的唯一办法。请记住，每周的结果不重要，要补充的是那每周10英镑的损失。拿实际的游戏来做比较可使我们较容易了解这个理论。为简便起见，以下所用的数据皆经过四捨五入。

以赌场优势为百分之一的百家乐来说，如每小时能玩75手，每一注下13英镑，输赢可达975英镑，则玩家的期望值是 -9.75英镑。

以赌场优势为百分之一点五的的牌九骨牌来说，若技术高的玩家每小时能玩30手，每一注下22英镑，输赢可达660英镑，则他的期望值是 -9.9英镑，但是此游戏的速度能造成总下注额极大的差异。

单零的轮盘其数字注的赌场优势是2.7%。在挤满了玩家的赌桌每小时能玩37局，若每一注下10英镑，输赢可为370英镑，则玩家的期望值是 -10英镑。若将此轮盘与每小时可玩180局且赌场优势同样是2.7%的电子轮盘比较，每局下2英镑赌注，输赢可达360英镑，玩家的期望值是 -9.72英镑。

长期的赌输犹如遭割千刀而亡，游戏速度越快，死亡越快到临。

技术在极多方面减低了成本或改良了产品，而裨益了消费者。对赢不了的玩家来说，技术却加快了赌戏，造成更多的损失，而抵抗它的唯一方法，就是降低你的赌注。

每一局或每一手都下同样的注额也许乏味无趣，但却是一个重要的控制方法。

将一局的赌注加倍，就得将两局的赌注减半以达到平衡。

这一切当然都是理论。任何一趟博弈你都有可能大赢或大输，但你不能拿这作借口来改变你对自己博弈行为的控制。博弈时你就已选择了输去时间与金钱；失控也是不明智的。

学生、失业者、领取福利者、半职打工者及其可支配的收入有类似限制者，均负担不起博弈损失，而应当避免博弈。25岁以下的人难应付博弈，因为其青春期的脑部发展未臻成熟。博弈中所需要对风险及报酬相对关系的分析是脑部最晚发展的一块区域，故25岁之前最好不要博弈。

总摘要如下：

不论是何种形式的博弈，一周不要超出相当于一小时的博弈（按一年平均计算）。

计划设定一个博弈级度，使每小时预期的损失，不超过你做全职员工每小时的收入。

博弈之前，积蓄一专用的赌本，且不论实际输赢结果如何，定期补充该赌本。

除非你愿意适当地下调你的赌注，避免玩经过技术性加速的赌戏。

我个人多年来曾是一个成功的扑克玩家，也是最成功的赌戏创造人之一，更是少数能够从与博弈有关的诉讼中获利的人。当我从事赌戏之创造及专利化时，我与史丹礼（Stanley Ko）成了好友，史丹礼在赌戏分析上是一个世界领导者，我们曾一块构思游戏的点子而很开心。我已出售我的赌戏资产并退休了，而且在英国展开了“更公平博弈”运动，新的博弈技术不应以贫穷、年轻且易受伤害的人为目标。

Understanding and Controlling Casino Game Gambling by Derek Webb

Gambling can be fun but it can also be dangerous. It’s important to understand gambling before you start. Real understanding of gambling means having to think in theoretical terms. The easiest way to think about it is by working out how much you can afford to lose.

Of course there are winners, but very few long term winners and only at games there is a possible chance for the player to have an edge. For example, a strong poker player playing against weaker players.

Gambling losses should never be from normal savings, from borrowings, or funded by the proceeds of crime. This is precisely the route to gambling ruin.

Gambling funds should be from income only, but not of course income needed for normal living. It should only come from disposable income, the discretionary spending for leisure.

Poorer persons with lower incomes are likely to have less income and therefore less disposable income, so should allocate less to gambling losses. For example, if only 10% of income is disposable, then the maximum gambling loss should be say 10% of that amount, being 1% of the person’s total income.

A wealthier person might have 20% of income at their disposal and could feel comfortable allocating a maximum of 20% of that to gambling losses, being 4% of their total income. The average amount between 1% and 4% is 2.5% which is a good balance to work from.

If a person has a 40 hour working week then one hour is 2.5% of that time. It does not make sense to lose at gambling at a higher rate per hour than your hourly earnings rate. So someone earning £400 per week at £10 per hour for 40 hours can afford to lose £10 per week in one hour of gambling.

It doesn't really matter whether the gambling activity is weekly or monthly or annually. The principle is to just apply the maximum time and loss over the longer period. In a 28 day month this would be a loss of £40 over 4 hours. If it's an annual gambling trip the allocated amount would be £500 over 50 hours.

Looking at casino table games there are differences in the pace of the games and in the house advantages in each game. If you were playing a game where there were 100 hands per hour and the house advantage is 1% then your loss per hour is 100% of your bet amount, assuming it is the same each hand. So the bet size should be £10 per hand to result in an average one hour loss of £10.

Although the expected loss is £10, the turnover in the hour is £1,000, this means the cash funds required will very probably be somewhere between these two amounts. A common measure of loss as percentage of funds used is known as the hold percentage. With typical hold percentage being around 20% then minimum funds required are likely to be £50

This £50 is of course only an average, so it makes sense to have a gambling bankroll far greater than the average amount needed in one session. Also the bankroll needs to cover consecutive negative sessions. A useful guide would be to start with a gambling bankroll of £500.

The way to build the bankroll is to set aside £10 per week for a year from disposable income before you ever start gambling. If you are unable to do that then you are not ready to start gambling.

The type of bets placed makes a difference. Betting on red or black at odds of 1 to 1 on roulette will not be as volatile as betting on only one number per spin at 35 to 1 odds on roulette. Whilst the £500 bankroll could easily be comfortable enough for the 1 to 1 bets it would be unlikely to be enough for the 35 to 1 bets.

In order to be able to keep gambling after the year is over, you will have needed to continue to always set aside the same £10 on a weekly basis. Gambling winnings should not be spent on other items, but should be added to the gambling bankroll. This is the only way to ensure that the gambling bankroll could stay intact. Remember it doesn’t matter what the actual result is in a week. It is the theoretical loss of the £10 which needs to be replaced.

Comparison of actual games makes the theory easier to understand. The numbers are rounded estimates for simplicity. Playing baccarat at 75 hands per hour and wagering £13 per hand for a turnover of £975 at a house advantage of 1% results in an expected loss of £9.75.

Playing pai gow tiles at 30 hands per hour and wagering £22 per hand for a turnover of £660 at a 1.5% house advantage based on skillful play results in an expected loss of £9.90. The pace of the game makes a big difference to the amount that can be staked.

The casino table game roulette with a single zero has a 2.7% house advantage on the number bets. Playing at a full table of around 37 hands per hour, at a stake of £10 per spin will generate a turnover of £370, resulting in an expected loss of £10 per hour.

Compare this with an electronic roulette game at 180 spins per hour with the same 2.7% house advantage. Now a stake per hand of £2 per spin will generate a turnover of £360, resulting in an expected loss of £9.72 per hour.

Long term gambling losses are like death by a thousand cuts. If the game speed is increased then death comes sooner. Technology in most areas helps consumers by reducing costs or improving products. For losing gamblers, technology increases the cost of gambling losses by speeding the games up. The only way to counter this is to reduce your gambling stake.

Keeping the same stake per spin or per hand might seem boring, but it is an important control method. Doubling the stake on one spin requires halving the stake on two spins to get back on balance.

All of this information is of course theory. In any one session you may come out well ahead or badly down. But these are not reasons or excuses to change the way you control your gambling behavior. When gambling you are already choosing to lose cash and time. It's not sensible to lose control as well.

Students, the unemployed, persons on benefits, persons in part-time work and persons with similar limitations on disposable income generally cannot afford gambling losses and should avoid gambling. Persons under age 25 may have difficulties with gambling as our adolescent brain development is not fully mature until that age. The risk-reward analysis needed in gambling is an area that is one of the last to develop. So it's a good idea not to start gambling until age 25.

In general summary -

      do not spend more than the equivalent of one hour per week (on an annualized basis) at all forms of gambling

      plan to gamble at a level that your expected loss per hour will not be more than you earn in an hour as a full-time employee

      save up a dedicated gambling bankroll before you start gambling and replenish that bankroll regularly regardless of actual results

      avoid gambling at casino games that have been speeded up technologically unless you are willing to trade down your wager appropriately

      My personal story is that I was a successful poker player for many years, one of the most successful casino game creators and one of the few people to have profited from gambling related law suits.

When I was involved in game creation and game patenting I became good buddies with Stanley Ko. Stanley is a world leader in gambling game analysis. We had lots of fun together thinking through game ideas.

I have now sold my casino game assets, have retired and have started campaigning for fairer gambling in Britain. Poor, young and vulnerable people should not be targeted by the newer gambling technologies.